Biggest Market Movers
US PCE Inflation
Track the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, consumer spending, price trends and the data shaping U.S. monetary-policy expectations and global financial markets.
Data is sourced from official U.S. economic releases and public Federal Reserve data services, with BEA and FRED used for the official PCE series.
Latest available data
U.S. PCE Inflation Snapshot
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Inflation target context
PCE vs Fed 2% Objective
PCE InflationData unavailableLatest annual rate
Core PCE InflationData unavailableUnderlying inflation
Fed Objective2.0%Federal Reserve longer-run inflation objective
DifferenceData unavailablePercentage points vs target
The Federal Reserve's 2% longer-run inflation objective is defined with total PCE inflation. Core PCE is presented as an analytic measure of underlying inflation, not as the formal policy target.
Release schedule
Next PCE Release
The Personal Income and Outlays release schedule is maintained by BEA. A verified schedule feed is not contained in this repo.
Next PCE release date unavailable.Official BEA release archive ↗
Market pricing
Market Expectations
Consensus estimates require a verified source and are not inferred from commentary or sample forecasts.
Market consensus estimates are currently unavailable.Previous, forecast and actual comparisons are not calculated without a verified forecast source.
Release comparison
PCE Inflation Surprise
PCE surprise is currently unavailable.No verified forecast data is configured.
Historical PCE series
U.S. PCE Inflation Trend
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Monthly movement
Monthly PCE Inflation Momentum
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Underlying inflation
Core PCE Inflation
Core PCE excludes food and energy and is often used as a guide to underlying inflation trends. The Federal Reserve's 2% longer-run objective is defined in terms of total PCE inflation, not a separate core PCE target.
Core PCE YoYData unavailable
Core PCE MoMData unavailable
Difference from 2%Data unavailable
Price pressures
Goods vs Services Inflation
Goods and services categories are included where real source data is available.
GoodsData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
ServicesData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
Goods MoMData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
Services MoMData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
Headline PCE categories
Food & Energy Inflation
FoodData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
EnergyData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
Food MoMData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
Energy MoMData currently unavailableBEA series not connected
Inflation dashboard
PCE Inflation Dashboard
PCE YoYData unavailableBEA/FRED
Core PCE YoYData unavailableBEA/FRED
PCE MoMData unavailableBEA/FRED
Core PCE MoMData unavailableBEA/FRED
Consumer SpendingData unavailableBEA/FRED
Real PCEData unavailableBEA/FRED
Personal IncomeData unavailableBEA/FRED
Disposable IncomeData unavailableBEA/FRED
Category rankings
Biggest Inflation Movers
Biggest increases currently unavailable.Component-level category data is not yet connected.
Biggest declines currently unavailable.Component-level category data is not yet connected.
Demand and spending
Consumer Spending
Personal Consumption ExpendituresData unavailableNominal PCE
Monthly ChangeData unavailableMoM
Real PCEData unavailableReal spending
Previous MonthData unavailablePrior observation
Nominal consumer spending changes with prices. Real PCE removes inflation from the spending measure to provide a clearer read on actual volume.
Income and demand
Personal Income & Consumer Spending
Personal IncomeData unavailable
Disposable IncomeData unavailable
Consumer SpendingData unavailable
Personal Saving RateData unavailable
Income, spending and inflation are connected through consumption, labor-market conditions and the broader policy backdrop, but the relationship is not mechanical.
Inflation definitions
PCE vs CPI Inflation
| Metric | PCE | CPI |
|---|---|---|
| Publisher | BEA | BLS |
| Measurement concept | Personal consumption expenditures | Consumer price basket |
| Food | Included | Included |
| Energy | Included | Included |
| Core measure | Core PCE excluding food and energy | Core CPI excluding food and energy |
| Fed objective | Yes — 2% longer-run objective | No |
The Federal Reserve defines its 2% longer-run inflation objective using total PCE inflation. CPI remains highly relevant to markets, but it is not the Fed's formal target measure.
Visit the US CPI / Inflation pagePolicy context
Why PCE Matters to the Federal Reserve
Headline PCE measures the broadest prices consumers face, while core PCE helps strip out volatile food and energy moves. Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's objective can increase expectations for tighter policy, depending on labor-market conditions, spending, inflation expectations and the broader outlook.
Rate expectations
PCE and Fed Rate Expectations
Rate expectations data currently unavailable.Real market-rate expectations are not configured in this project.
Transmission
How PCE Can Move Financial Markets
US Dollar
A surprise in inflation can shift policy expectations and may affect the dollar.
Treasury Yields
Inflation and rate expectations often influence yields across the curve.
Gold
Real yields, the dollar and inflation expectations can affect gold pricing.
Equities & Bitcoin
Valuations and liquidity conditions matter, but reactions are not mechanical.
Existing market-data provider
Latest PCE Market Reaction
The project supports real quote data, but historical intraday release windows are not available through the existing source.
US Dollar IndexLoading...Awaiting verified quote
GoldLoading...Awaiting verified quote
EUR/USDLoading...Awaiting verified quote
BTC/USDLoading...Awaiting verified quote
Historical record
U.S. PCE Historical Data
| Reference Month | PCE YoY | Core PCE YoY | PCE MoM | Core PCE MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Long-term inflation
Long-Term PCE Inflation
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EconomicLab Analytical Classification
Current Inflation Regime
Above ObjectiveBelow Objective
Current inflation regime is calculated from the latest real PCE observation versus the Federal Reserve's 2% longer-run objective.
Official release
Latest PCE Release
The latest available PCE release is summarized from official data and BEA release publications.
Latest release summary unavailable.BEA personal income and outlays ↗
Educational framework
How Fundamental Traders Watch PCE
Before the Release
Monitor previous PCE, core PCE, CPI, wages, spending and Fed expectations.
At Release
Compare actual versus forecast and previous readings, then review headline versus core and goods versus services.
After Release
Watch USD, yields, gold, equities and rate expectations without assuming a fixed reaction.
Educational information only. This page does not provide personalized investment advice.
Traceability
Data Sources
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ↗Federal Reserve ↗FRED ↗Market quotes: existing EconomicLab provider